Monday, December 04, 2006

The question of Florida

Like the recount of 2000, the Disney World state is the eye of controversy. Once again, my stance remains that the B(C)S is total and utter crap. That being said, I don't have a major problem with Florida playing Ohio State for the national title (by the way, it'll have been 51 days between games for OSU when they take the field in Glendale. Tell there's nothing stupid about that!). Why Florida is worthy:

1. Tougher strength of schedule than Michigan. And not by only a little bit either. The Gators faced 10 (!!!) bowl-eligible teams this year and beat them all except for Auburn. Sure, Florida did play Western Carolina, but Michigan played in the Big Ten which, aside from Ohio State and Wisconsin, was unforgivably pedestrian this season. Florida's wins over LSU and Arkansas, to me, outweigh Michigan's victories over Notre Dame and Wisconsin.

2. SEC champions. In my oh so humble opinion, it should be a prerequisite that in order to play for the national title, you must at the very least win your conference. The B(C)S has earned many an enemy because of this oversight (Nebraska '01, Oklahoma '03) and still, I'm not about to credit them, now, but Florida should definitely be rewarded for winning what was by far the toughest football conference in America this season. Not only did Michigan fail to win the Big Ten, their competition wasn't nearly as stiff as the SEC.

3. Michigan had their shot and lost. Cry all you want about a rematch, but we've already seen it. Does Michigan undoubtedly deserve a second chance more than Florida deserves their only chance? No. It doesn't make sense (which makes it somewhat of an upset, given that this is college football we're talking about -- where the system is perpetually broken).

These are three infallible points that justify Florida's selection to the title game. All that said, however, on a neutral field, head-to-head, I strongly believe that Michigan would beat Florida. But this is a subjective view that will always (should always) yield to objective data. So what's to be done? And if it's really a matter of who is the best 1-loss team in the land, who is to say that Louisville didn't simply have the misfortune of playing in the Big East or that unbeaten Boise State couldn't have their day in the sun or that Wisconsin -- who never played Ohio State during the regular season -- couldn't beat the Buckeyes? The whole things stinks and that, folks, is chapter 307 on why college football is a disaster.

A couple more Gator notes...

First off, seems to me like the Florida basketball team have come out looking like the regular season version of themselves from a season ago. How quickly we forget that they were a 3-seed in last year's tournament and far far far far from a lock for the Final Four. Last night's upset loss to Florida State was a bit of a hiccup and reports are that the Noles are pretty decent this year, but I wonder if Florida is saving it all for the final stretch. Then again, their two defeats this year have been against Kansas in de facto Lawrence and away to an in-state rival. Maybe I'm being a little harsh. Then again, we're talking about a dominant defending national champion that returned their entire starting lineup.

Secondly, Florida alum and Chicago Bear quarterback, Rex Grossman's numbers from yesterday: 6/19 passing, 34 yards, 0 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. This was against Minnesota, so Chicago still managed to win, BUT, this was against Minnesota. Grossman is awful and the Bears will without question fall in the playoffs if this keeps up.

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Thursday, November 30, 2006

Buckeyes and Ducks and Hoops, oh my!

Andy Katz has it right: Oden or not, Ohio State is legit.

Flat out excellent game last night in Chapel Hill and UNC should consider themselves lucky to have pulled out the W. Buckeyes are going to be unreal when Oden returns, but they exposed a true weakness in the Tar Heels defense. Turns out NC is susceptible to dribble penetration in a major way. Mark it down in your memory banks, now. If NC draws a team in March with an aggressive, savvy point guard and deadly outside shooting, you can pencil in the upset then and there. Also, for any Simpsons fans out there, I'd just like to point out that Ohio State has a player with the last name "Terwilliger."

Elsewhere, just want to put it out there, keep an eye on Oregon. Ducks beat Georgetown last night. They've got a 5'6" frosh who you really should have heard of by now named Tajuan Porter who is just blowing up. At the start of the year, I picked Oregon third in the Pac 10. Could well be. This is a tournament team.

Gearing up for Illinois v Arizona on Saturday. I'm expecting a battle, but Wildcats' win nonetheless. This isn't exactly the Illini team we mixed it up with in 2001 or 2005. No, we're looking at a squad that figures to finish 4th or 5th in the Big Ten. I'm sure they're still smarting after Maryland snapped their winning streak at home.

1-seeds, as of today, just because:
1. UCLA
2. Florida
3. North Carolina
4. Ohio State

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Friday, November 17, 2006

NFL Week 11 Picks

Before we get to it, some of you might've heard that there's this pretty huge college football game happening tomorrow. Ohio State and Michigan meet for the first time as #1 and #2 and it's the first time since 1975 that both teams have been undefeaeted heading into the game. Never has there been more at stake in the biggest rivalry in college football than tomorrow. Not often that you'll see a team disappointed to be playing in the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines are definite underdogs heading into Columbus, but they may have just received some devine, albeit tragic, inspiration. Bo Schembechler has died during the same week that ESPN.com ran a story about an Ohio State punk band called "The Dead Schembechlers." I don't know about all of you, but that spells a lot of bad karma for the Buckeyes. Can Troy Smith & Co. ward off the voodoo? Well, facing Lloyd Carr, I think they do it just barely. I'll be pulling for Michigan, but my pick is Ohio State 24 Michigan 23.

While on the topic, here's a great piece from Dan Wetzel about how USC (assuming they win out) should unquestionably be in the national title game. All due respect to possibly undefeated Rutgers and Boise State, but I'm with Wetzel on this all the way.

Okay. Let's see what the pros have in store, playing the rare role of afterthought on this football weekend. 8-8 v the spread last week and it doesn't get any easier this go around. Silver and Black...

Oakland at Kansas City (-9.5) - The Raiders nearly caught Denver napping last weekend, but clock management proved to be a mighty downfall. That and, um, Andrew Walter. Back-to-back rivalry games might be asking too much of this team's energy level. Especially playing on the road against a KC squad that'll be inspired by Trent Green's return and desperate to keep in the playoff race. Chiefs 24 Raiders 10

San Diego at Denver (-2.5) - The game of the week has to be Broncos/Chargers. No doubt. The first of two clashes to decide the AFC West. Both teams coming in 7-2. San Diego is the highest scoring team in the league, while Denver boasts one of the stingiest defenses. The Chargers don't have a particularly good history of playing in Denver, though, and the fact that this is the Sunday Night game only makes matters worse for SD. I love Superman, LDT, but I'm not picking against Denver at home. The return contest will likely be a different story. Broncos 20 Chargers 17

Cincinnati at New Orleans (-3.5) - I said after last Sunday that the Bengals are dead and buried after that collapse against the Chargers and I'm sticking to it. Cincy is in too fragile a mental state after devastating back-to-back losses to overcome playing on the road against America's Team. Saints 31 Bengals 21

Buffalo at Houston (-2.5) - Can't really say that you "like" either team, here, but they both played tough last week. Bills nearly clipped the sleeping Colts and Houston did the double of Jacksonville. Texans have more momentum and the home crowd to boost them over the McGahee-less Bills. Texans 27 Bills 16

New England (-5.5) at Green Bay - Patriots have lost two in a row? Is someone slipping me crazy pills or is that actually true? Must win for the Pats who are only too happy to play in the frozen tundra against mistake-happy Brett Favre. Patriots 30 Packers 17

Atlanta at Baltimore (-4.5) - I'm making this one my lock of the week. Vick has looked flat out bad in back-to-back losses against the Lions and Browns. How do you think he'll fare against the Baltimore D, Ray Lewis or not? Ravens 26 Falcons 13

Chicago at New York Jets (+6.5) - Doesn't get any easier for the Bears as they hook up with an overachieving Jets team that has Chad Pennington looking like a Pro Bowler. The Jets are opportunistic and hungry, but Chicago's D will be the difference. Bears 22 Jets 20

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cleveland - Steelers showed a lot of heart, hanging on to beat the Saints last week. No QB likes the look of Romeo Crennell's defense, these days, but this could be a momentum builder for the champs. They need to go on a major run if they're to salvage some pride from this season. Steelers 20 Browns 14

St. Louis (+6.5) at Carolina - Despite covering against the Bucs on Monday, the Panthers still haven't proven that they can be consistent. Rams are on a slide, though. Panthers 28 Rams 24

Tennessee at Philadelphia (-13.5) - Nothing would spark this Eagles team like back-to-back blowout victories over crappy teams. Titans have had a few gut punches this season and I think they're due for a bit of a letdown this weekend. Eagles 35 Titans 13

Washington at Tampa Bay (-2.5) - Would you watch this game? Me neither. Buccaneers 10 Redskins 6

Minnesota at Miami (-3.5) - Don't look now, but these two teams are racing in opposite directions. Dolphins are making a lot of progress and the Vikings are going in the tank. Dolphins 27 Vikings 15

Seattle at San Francisco (+6.5) - 49ers are playing tough at home and are looking for three on the bounce. This should be the upset special. But... Seahawks 23 49ers 21

Detroit at Arizona (-2.5) - I can't believe I'm being forced to pick AZ. Cardinals 38 Lions 31

Indianapolis (-1.5) at Dallas - This is the game that people think will be good, but really won't be. Colts still can't stop the run, though, so it'll be interesting... if the Cowboys can exploit that. Colts 34 Cowboys 26

New York Giants (-3.5) at Jacksonville - Maybe the most difficult matchup to call of the season. Both teams have the talent, yet seem to have letdowns at the most inopportune times. Over/under on references Tony Kornholer makes about his stupid fantasy team: 10. Giants 23 Jaguars 17

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