Thursday, November 30, 2006

NFL Week 13 picks

I've declared war on the NFL, this season, calling it a piece of crap and a wasteland of mediocrity. I'm standing by that statement. Still, no one stands clear above the rest and we'll be treated to another round of games between teams with few decipherable differences. 10-6 vs the line last week and there's a game most people won't be seeing tonight. Which is too bad, because it's the game of the week.

Thursday nighter on Can't See TV:
Baltimore at Cincinnati (-2.5) - Everyone wants so desperately to talk about the Cowboys/Giants game on Sunday, but this one is going to be the real prize. Better go to a sports bar if you have any designs on watching. Will Chad Johnson rack up another 260 yards? Doubtful, but the Bengals offense has been red hot over the last month and there's a ton of bitterness in their locker room over the last time they hooked up with the Ravens. Baltimore might be caught napping after humiliating Pittsburgh and gaining a stranglehold on the AFC North. Bengals 32 Ravens 24

Da Raiders
Houston at Oakland (-3.5) - Same ish, different day. Wait a minute, you mean to tell me that there's dissent within the Raiders organization? Get outta here. That's just crazy talk. Man, why aren't more people talking about this NEWS? Fact is, as long as there's a guy named "Al Davis" running the team and as long as he keeps making questionable hires, anyone with half a brain in Oakland will have ample reason to question what direction the team is headed in. Thankfully, a ray of sunlight hit the team earlier this week when Shell finally came to his senses and demoted bed&breakfast master, Tom Walsh. The Raiders have played well enough to actually win over the last three weeks against each of their division rivals, but have contrived to either blow one or two key plays or have the refs screw them royally (I'm looking at you, bogus San Diego officiating crew) and wind up losing. This week, though, it's a different story. A beatable Texans team comes to Oakland to face a rejuvinated squad, invigorated by the fact that someone with a little more experience and savvy will be calling plays on the sideline. Defense stills looks awesome, too. Namdi Asomugha is making plays left and right and Kirk Morrison is achingly close to being a perrenial Pro Bowler. It's on the offense to put up some points on Sunday. I think they will. Raiders 27 Texans 14

The rest...

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+7.5) - If we're talking strictly power ratings, as in, who do I believe is the stronger team, head-to-head, I'd have to rate the Colts 4th in the AFC. Despite the win over New England, I refuse to believe that the Patriots showed everything they're capable of during that game, and I can't see Indy's joke of a run defense containing either San Diego or Baltimore. Titans are giving their opponents all they want, lately, as the Giants can attest to. Indy wins by a narrow margin in the elements. Colts 24 Titans 21

Arizona (+6.5) at St. Louis - Am I a fool to pick AZ on the road? Not against the Rams, I'm not. Anybody's game, really, and Arizona should've won the first time around. Going with the upset. Cardinals 17 Rams 12

Minnesota at Chicago (-9.5) - No one likes the look of the Vikings, right now, which means that a good performance from Rex Grossman is anything but a given. He'll get slapped around by an amped up Viking D, egged on by his supposed trash talking from week 3. This time, the Bears rely on the running game. Bears 20 Vikings 9

New York Jets (+1.5) at Green Bay - Do you realize that the Jets are still in the hunt for a playoff spot? The Jets! Jets 31 Packers 17

San Francisco (+7.5) at New Orleans - The 49ers are finally back to getting some cred from people around the league. 7.5 points is far too generous. Saints 25 49ers 21

San Diego at Buffalo (+6.5) - It's December (as of tomorrow), which means it's time for the REAL "Marty Ball" to rear it's ugly head and step out of the closet. In for a tough one in Buffalo. QB play will be the difference. Oh yeah, and Vincent Jackson to tear an ACL. Chargers 27 Bills 24

Kansas City (-5.5) at Cleveland - All aboard the Larry Johnson Express. The Chiefs are on a roll and Cleveland has to still be wondering what the hell happened last week. Chiefs 31 Browns 16

Atlanta at Washington (-1.5) - Right now, I'm not sure I'd pick the Falcons to beat anybody. Redskins 21 Falcons 12

Detroit at New England (-13.5) - You're serious about winning the Superbowl? Then you'll beat Detroit at home by at least two touchdowns. Patriots 38 Lions 13

Jacksonville at Miami (-1.5) - I've given up on trying to figure out Jacksonville. I want to like them, but they've betrayed me way too much. Miami's on a huge uptick. Dolphins 17 Jaguars 14

Tampa Bay (+8.5) at Pittsburgh - This is not going to be a pretty game to sit through. So I won't do it. Steelers 18 Buccaneers 15

Dallas (-3.5) at New York Giants - I'm surprised at myself, even, for picking Dallas over the Giants. There's no question that NY has more talent, but what choice do I have? The G-Men seem to be rocketing to hell in a handbasket. Cowboys 28 Giants 21

Seattle at Denver (-3.5) - This is a tough one. On the one hand, I think Jay Cutler will fail miserably in the NFL. If he's such an amazing talent, why was he never able to lead a winning team at Vanderbilt? Does starting him over Jake Plummer makes this a more potent Broncos offense? Probably not. Plus, you're bound to have some rookie mistakes. Seattle was rather unconvincing on Monday night, though, and dealing with the Denver cold, at night, won't help their cause. Shaun Alexander won't be hitting 200 yards on Sunday, either, and Matt Hasselbeck seems to be one light shove away from being knocked out for another couple of weeks. It's actually sort of an upset that I'm picking Denver to cover (especially since I hate them so much). Broncos 16 Seahawks 10

Carolina (-3.5) at Philadelphia - It's sad. At the beginning of the year, this looked like a possible NFC Championship game preview. Now... Panthers 24 Eagles 14

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Buckeyes and Ducks and Hoops, oh my!

Andy Katz has it right: Oden or not, Ohio State is legit.

Flat out excellent game last night in Chapel Hill and UNC should consider themselves lucky to have pulled out the W. Buckeyes are going to be unreal when Oden returns, but they exposed a true weakness in the Tar Heels defense. Turns out NC is susceptible to dribble penetration in a major way. Mark it down in your memory banks, now. If NC draws a team in March with an aggressive, savvy point guard and deadly outside shooting, you can pencil in the upset then and there. Also, for any Simpsons fans out there, I'd just like to point out that Ohio State has a player with the last name "Terwilliger."

Elsewhere, just want to put it out there, keep an eye on Oregon. Ducks beat Georgetown last night. They've got a 5'6" frosh who you really should have heard of by now named Tajuan Porter who is just blowing up. At the start of the year, I picked Oregon third in the Pac 10. Could well be. This is a tournament team.

Gearing up for Illinois v Arizona on Saturday. I'm expecting a battle, but Wildcats' win nonetheless. This isn't exactly the Illini team we mixed it up with in 2001 or 2005. No, we're looking at a squad that figures to finish 4th or 5th in the Big Ten. I'm sure they're still smarting after Maryland snapped their winning streak at home.

1-seeds, as of today, just because:
1. UCLA
2. Florida
3. North Carolina
4. Ohio State

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