My favorite day of the year: 2008 edition

You may all know it as "Selection Sunday," but to me, it feels like Christmas. Actually, scratch that. Selection Sunday is the Christmas Eve to the NCAA first round's Christmas. I'm dusting off this little blog because I just have to talk about it -- as is always the case with me and the NCAA tourney. But before we break it down, I just want to address the relief/exasperation I'm feeling with Arizona and the perceived slight of Arizona State.

In the end, the Cats got in safely as a 10-seed. But the fact that they were a bubble team at all is reason enough to call for Kevin O'Neill's head on a pike. How he wasn't crucified after getting swept by ASU (swept by the Scum Devils in bball?? I never thought I'd see it), I'll never know. As I said, though, if the seedings are to be believed, Arizona got in ahead of fellow tournament teams Kansas State, St. Joseph's, Baylor, Kentucky, and Villanova. I count five teams there. K-State, I feel, were seeded lower than they deserved, but the other four are who ASU should be fuming over. Yes, Arizona State 2 Arizona 0. Yes, I think ASU should've made the tournament ahead of Villanova and Kentucky and even Baylor. But ultimately, the Sun Devils have only themselves to blame. 5-10 in their last 15, they get credit for playing in Maui, but never bothered to leave home a lousy non-conference schedule -- they only time they did, they got worked by Nebraska -- and, most importantly, the Selection Committee doesn't take conference affiliation into consideration when comparing teams side by side. Why does that matter? Because it flat out negates the argument that ASU finishing one game ahead of Arizona in the Pac 10 standings was reason enough to put them in. It's an overall picture and when you look at what Arizona has done when healthy (16-6 with Nic Wise -- their real engine in the lineup).

It is sad for Arizona State, sure. Fellow bubble team Oregon scored a 9-seed, so go figure. But what this really shows us is that the conferece tournaments (as I've been preaching to anyone who will listen) are bad for college basketball. Yes, they bring in money, but consider Georgia who finished dead last in a mediocre SEC. How about Temple who had no shot of making the dance as an at-large? I'm sorry, but the Arizona States and the Daytons and the Virginia Techs of the world, if they feel the need to bitch, bitch about conference tournaments. What's more, none of them took care of business when it mattered most. If you can't play your way into a spread of 65 teams, you probably don't have any business competing for the national title in the first place.

Now, then...

East Regional
The pundits are all going on record, stating that the East is the toughest region of the four. That may be so, considering the collection of talent -- Notre Dame as a 5, Indiana sandbagged with an 8-seed??, Butler inexplicably dumped down to a 7?? Sure, those are all good teams, but when you look at the bracket, I think it breaks very favorably for North Carolina. They never have to leave their home state and I think they're more than capable of stomping any one of the teams in the region, with 2-seed Tennessee looking like the softest and easiest challenge of the bunch.

Here's the thing about Tennessee: They're losing in the first weekend. I'm so skeptical of this team, it's not even funny. Live by the three, soft defense, and remarkably unimpressive when it came to winning a down-year in the SEC. If the Butler Bulldogs can get past South Alabama in the first round (and that won't be easy, given that the game is in Birmingham), Graves & Co. are going to cut up the Vols with ease.

Should the Vols somehow make it to the Sweet 16, they're not getting past Louisville. Pitino's club is the mirror image of Tennessee, except for that they play defense and have a little more size on the interior. Good night.

I see North Carolina meeting up with Indiana in the second round after the Hoosiers -- who were probably a 5-seed two weeks ago -- after IU beats Arkansas with their superior talent. But who knows if Indiana will even show up during the opener. They certainly didn't care about beating Minnesota this weekend.

Any upsets here? I'm eyeballing two: St. Joe's over Oklahoma and 2006 Final Four heroes George Mason pulling a stunner over Notre Dame. The latter might be the only 5-12 upset, this year, and I might be sentimental about all the good memories GMU providing the world in 2006. But Wil Thomas and Folarin Campbell were starters on that '06 club and last year, the Irish fell victim to Winthrop. If GMU can keep it close, maybe last season's upset will begin to creep into the Irish's head.

Speaking of Winthrop, they're falling to Washington State in round one. If I had any faith in the Cougars' ability to consistently put points on the board, I'd pick them against the Tar Heels. But I don't, so I won't. In the end, UNC is in the Final Four, getting past Louisville in the Elite 8.

South Regional
THIS is the toughest region, my friends. The top six seeds all have the quality to make a run. But the deciding game is going to occur in the Sweet 16 between Texas and Stanford. The winner of this matchup will absolutely be heading to the Final Four, regardless of whether they have to play Memphis, Pitt, or Michigan State in the regional final. I like the 2nd-seeded Longhorns for the superior guard play and because Stanford is a lousy shooting team.

The top half of this bracket is very interesting, however. Memphis will show up in the Sweet 16, but don't count on them meeting up with Pitt. The Panthers, though very tough and very good, just played four games in four days. Unfortunately for them, they'll begin play on Thursday as opposed to Friday. Teams who play 4 in 4 traditionally don't survive the first weekend. You can count on this even more than a 12 beating a 5 (which didn't happen last year, by the way!). The Panthers won't have the legs to get to the second weekend. That leaves Michigan State in an intriguing position. They've got a difficult test against Temple (incidentally, the last time Temple played in the NCAAs, they lost to Michigan State in the 2001 Elite 8), but if Neitzel can lead his team past the Owls and if the Spartans can take care of the basketball, then they've got a half-decent shot at making a run to the Elite 8.

Why so down on Memphis? Well, they are a great team, but the free throw shooting is going to kill them. It'll be Texas winning two in Houston before moving on to San Antonio.

Lock of the first round: Marquette over Kentucky. It's going to be a massacre.

St. Mary's will account for the WCC's (three teams, this year! good for them!) lone victory, knocking down Miami.

Midwest Regional
While the South has the toughest road for it's top six teams, the midwest is the most wide open... After Kansas, that is... Never thought I'd say this, but I love the Jayhawks and don't see anyone in the region that can get in their way. Maybe Vanderbilt (who, had they been given a more favorable draw, would've been a sleeper of mine) puts up a fight in the Sweet 16, but that's it.

Clemson vs Villanova is a very intriguing matchup, but if it wasn't a 5-12 game, I'm not sure how many people would actually consider picking 'Nova.

Davidson playing in it's home state against Gonzaga. Bet the farm, Davidson is moving on to round two.

This region has the absolute gem of the first round matchups: USC vs Kansas State. Mayo vs Beasley. Drool. It's going to be a classic showcase and it's also going to be the start of a deep tournament run for the Trojans. USC is talented enough and athletic enough to get past the slow, grinding style of Wisconsin. Similar case against Georgetown in the Sweet 16. Too many close calls for the Hoyas, this season, and they're going to slip up somewhere before the Final Four.

West Regional
Here's the softest region of them all and you have to believe that UCLA is a lock for the Final Four. I really think they'll coast all the way to the semis. The health of Luc Richard M'bad Moute is an issue, but the first weekend shouldn't give the Bruins too much trouble, and Luc Richard should return by week 2. At least UCLA hopes he will, anyway. But how can you not love the experience of two consecutive Final Fours, perhaps the best point guard in the country in Darren Collison, one of the best shutdown defenders in Russell Westbrook, the hard-nosed defense, the tenacious rebounding, and of course Kevin Love who I'd think has a little something to say about Tyler Hansbrough getting all the player of the year attention. To me, UCLA, along with Kansas and North Carolina, are a cut above everyone else in the field.

You can write it down, now, BYU is knocking off Texas A&M in the opener. These aren't your Acie Law Aggies of a year ago. Shockingly inconsistent and often times underachieving, I think A&M is in for an ambush. BYU's fans will certainly travel to Anaheim, too.

It's a bit unfortunate, but it seems as though all the mid-majors are playing each other in round one (UNLV v Kent, Butler v S. Alabama, Gonzaga v Davidson) and that's the case with this tasty 5-12 game between Drake and Western Kentucky. I haven't seen much at all of WKU and I know they've got a star in Courtney Lee, but Drake is for real. Absolutely. "Love the Drake!" I'll tell you what else: If UConn isn't mentally present for 40 minutes, they're Bulldog bait. Drake is going to be waving the mid-major flag (along with Butler) in the Sweet 16.

Recall what I said about Pitt in for a serious uphill battle after playing four games in four days? The story is no different with sudden national darling -- and scurge of NIT teams everywhere -- Georgia. Oh, and remember what I said about how Marquette is going to thump Kentucky? That applies here, too. Xavier is going to slaughter Georgia and then dance on their faces. The X-Men are possibly the most dangerous team in this half of the region, but a win over Georgia might be all they get. Purdue v Baylor will be a great matchup, but the Boilermakers have the look of a team that can upset a Xavier on their day and reach the Sweet 16.

This is actually the only 1/8 of the Elite 8 that I'm conflicted over and in part because of Purdue's presence, as well as the upset possibility of Duke falling to the West Virginia/Arizona winner. I'd love to go with my heart here and proclaim Arizona as the sleeper of the tournament that will represent the token double-digit seed in the Sweet 16, but given their form this year, how can back-to-back wins be a sure thing? I think the Dukies match up well against either WVU or UofA, but a physical team can take Coach K's boys down. Arizona doesn't fit that mold, but they've got serious talent with Jerryd Bayless. Duke should be favored, but they're no lock for the second weekend.