Friday, November 03, 2006

"It's on tonight"

Those are the words of the Black Mamba. There's a fun, brief video clip of him getting his knee wrapped in ice and everything. How pleasant. Things to look for in tonight's game against the Sonics...

1. Mamba's return (obviously). But the question is, will it alter the otherwise excellent chemistry shown by the Lakers in the first two games?

2. Mamba vs Ray Allen. Always a treat.

3. If the season ended after two games, Lamar Odom would have to be the heavy favorite for MVP. But it doesn't, so he isn't. However, Odom has been brilliant in Mamba's absence. Last season, he had a niggling penchant for settling into the background at times. One might think that Mamba's return tonight would reignite this bad habit. I don't think it will. Not this year. Odom is on a mission of redemption and rededication. Look for another inspired game out of him.

4. Who will Seattle start at center? Robert Swift is out for the year with a torn ACL and Mouhamed Sene was nothing short of comical against Portland on Wednesday. Sene is Project Central. Me? I'm hoping he starts again, though the coaching staff will probably think better of their previous mistake and go with Johan Petro. In either case, hopefully Andrew Bynum has recovered from the slight sprain that hampered him on Wednesday at Golden State.

5. Seattle has Allen and Rashard Lewis, sure, but we've got Kobe and Lamar. This game will be won at the 4-spot. Chris Wilcox and Danny Fortson represent a tough challenge on the blocks and Ronny Turiaf may be the only healthy Laker able to match them for intensity on the boards.

6. Jordan Farmar continues to snip minutes from Smush Parker. This is a very good thing. If Farmar isn't starting alongside Mamba by New Year's, it'll be because he's injured. No other possible explanation would be acceptable.

7. Nothing to do with the game, per se, but I have to say, the "Lights Out" promotion used on opening night was really cool. So cool, that it will continue all season long at Staples. There's something totally awesome about killing the houselights and having the court be the only thing lit in the whole arena. Before you say different, just know, I'm not wrong about that.

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NFL Week 9 Picks

The last round of bye weeks and it couldn't come at a better time for Philadelphia or Carolina, two NFC teams that have the talent to make the playoffs, but are seemingly lost mentally. The week off will do them both a world of good. The Jets (who would have ever thought?!) have a favorable enough schedule that nine wins and a playoff push seem like a reality. Though in the AFC, the competition for those two wildcard spots is far too stiff. Plus they just lost to Cleveland -- a feat reserved for the Raiders. Then there's the Cardinals... Hey, at least Matt Leinart is going to be a great quarterback someday.

On to the matchups and I'll begin tradition by leading off with the Raiders, followed by the game of the week, and then the rest of the week's slate.

Oakland (+8) at Seattle - Andrew Walter! Seneca Wallace! It's Monday Night Football on ESPN (buh buh dah dah)! Talk about your pieces of crap... Anyway, why in the world take the points with Oakland on the road? Well, while it is seemingly a blunder on par with invading Iraq (sans the casualties of war), Oakland's defense is riding a high after picking apart the Steelers last week. Granted, Pittsburgh hasn't really found their footing this season, but the Raider D has surprisingly been a bright spot over the last five weeks, ranking in the NFL's top ten (rated 8th at present). It's the offense, however, that has been horrendous. Walter completed all of five passes last Sunday (5!!!) and the running game is dead. Seattle's defense, however, has been anywhere between average and bad and, on the offensive side of the ball, how much confidence do you have in the vaunted Seneca Wallace/Maurice Morris combo? Wallace was able to move the ball last week and, playing at home, Seattle realizes this is a must-win game if they're serious about the playoffs. They may yet win, but Derrick Burgess & co. will be harrassing Wallace all day. In fact, why the hell not, this is the gamble of the week: Raiders 20 Seahawks 17

Game of the week:
Indianapolis at New England (-2.5) - Bill Simmons outlines my feelings on this matchup perfectly: I want to see them [the Colts] leave Foxborough with everyone saying, "Yup, we're idiots, we forgot that you shouldn't go against Brady in a big game" and "God, I'm dumb, I forgot that you can't beat a great team in a big game if you can't stop the run." Right on the money. The Colts rate 31st in the league on run defense. Given New England has a much more productive offense than the Broncos and Denver's running game was able to slice open the Colts' front seven at will, what will a savvy Brady and the combo of Dillon and Maroney do? They could very well run for 250 yards! Even as a die-hard Raiders fan who still cringes and whose soul turns a little more bitter everytime I hear the words "tuck rule," I gotta say, I just don't understand the national obsession with the plastic Colts.
Patriots 31 Colts 24

Houston at New York Giants (-13) - You'd ever think about taking Houston on the road with a David Carr/Sage Rosenfels QB controversy? Let alone against the Giants? I gotta say, before the season started, I thought New York was good enough to make it the the NFC championship. Now, I think they can make it to the Superbowl. I really do. Granted, it's the second half of the season where the true contenders step forward and next week's meeting with Chicago should be epic. G-men caught looking ahead? Nope, Texans are too bad.
Giants 38 Texans 14

Dallas (-3) at Washington - Ugh. I'm telling you, now, this will be an ugly game to sit through. If people think Tony Romo is savior in Dallas, someone's obviously spiked the water supply. The Redskins are a mess, though. Cowboys 24 Redskins 10

Green Bay at Buffalo (-3) - Sorry, but beating Miami and Arizona the last two weeks does not mean that Brett Favre is back. I like the gritty Bills at home, off a bye week... even Losman at quarterback.
Bills 26 Packers 20

Tennessee (+10) at Jacksonville - The Jaguars are the one team in the NFL that completely confounds me. There's so much that I like about them, yet they manage to baffle constantly. Lose by 20 to Houston, then beat Philly? David Garrard is officially the starter, this weekend, so you can't bet on Jacksonville to cover. The Titans (although coming off a win against the Jags' nemesis, Houston) are still going through growing pains with Vince Young. The away atmosphere won't help him.
Jaguars 24 Titans 21

New Orleans (-1) at Tampa Bay - This is an important game for New Orleans. Lose this one and the whole team's psyche could unravel as everyone in the country rubber-stamps "PRETENDER" on their forehead. Tampa's improved over the last couple weeks, too, and are a tough proposition at home. May not seem like it, but there's a lot of pressure on the Saints in this game. I think they've had enough of a makeover to overcome Bruce Gradkowski & Co. But not by much. Last second field goal, anyone? Saints 19 Buccaneers 17

Atlanta (-5) at Detroit - The Lions are a bad team. The Falcons are a bit Jeckyll/Hyde. Their running game should be more than enough, however, to pull out a comfortable road win. Falcons 34 Lions 17

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-3) - The AFC North crown potentially hangs in the balance. With those being the stakes, would you bet against a Ray Lewis-led defense against an erratic, unhappy Bengal offense? Me neither. Not to mention that personel issues at linebacker are catching up to Cincy quicker than ever. Ravens 27 Bengals 16

Miami at Chicago (-13.5) - I've been saying that Chicago is untested for the last couple weeks, now, and this game won't change that. The Dolphins are just plain bad. But Chicago will certainly be tested next week against the Giants. After this Sunday's gimme, their next three games against the Giants, Jets, and Patriots will give us all a much clearer understanding of how good this Bears team really is. Beating up on Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo, and San Fran doesn't impress me.
Bears 45 Dolphins 9

Kansas City (+3) at St. Louis - KC's last two games were wins over San Diego and Seattle. The Rams' last games were losses to those very same opponents. Logic would dictate that a rising Chiefs team would then knock off a sputtering Rams team. Ah, but this is the NFL! So clearly, the Rams are going to win, right? Well, no. Remember this is the NFL! Everytime you think you've got it figured out, it turns out you don't.
Chiefs 35 Rams 30

Minnesota at San Francisco (+5.5) - 49ers play much better at home. They still cannot be counted on to avoid mistakes, however, and Minnesota has a solid rush defense. That spells trouble for fumble-prone Frank Gore. Vikings 24 49ers 20

Denver (+2) at Pittsburgh - I don't know about you, but after seeing the Steelers' horror show last weekend against Oakland, I'm flat out stunned that they're favored in this game. Even if it is at home. You think the Raider D gave Big Ben Motorcycle fits? Wait 'til he faces Denver. This result won't be nearly as rosy (not only for Pittsburgh, but for me -- screw Shanahan!) as last season's AFC title game.
Broncos 20 Steelers 13

Cleveland (+12.5) at San Diego - I have no doubt the Chargers are good enough to win, but the Cleveland defense has kept them close in every single game this year except for Cincy in week 2. They're only getting stronger, too. Chargers 22 Browns 16

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