Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Can you feel it? (Part I)

Oh yeah... it's creeping up on us... the glory... the splendor... only five months away... are you ready for the Madness?

Thank the heavens that college basketball is back. You know who doesn't like college hoops? Racists. You're not a racist, are you? Good! Hopefully, this season is just as exciting as last (which was pretty damn exciting), though there isn't nearly the same uncertainty as to who will win the title (stand up if you play ball in Gainesville).

The season officially kicked off yesterday when Maryland and Vermont scored a couple of easy victories. So, on with it! Gimme gimme gimme.

But before the meat of it, I'd like to pimp The Mid-Majority website run by Kyle Whelliston, he who champions the little guy in college basketball and contributes mid-major-related articles to ESPN. Where as Dick Vitale says he's the champion of the little guy, but actually backs anything out of the ACC, Whelliston really backs the little guy. I'm right there with him, 100% For some reason, I've always had an affinity for the MAC. I don't know why, I just love that conference. They always come to play during tourney time. Bad memories of Miami University's 5-12 upset over Arizona in '95, sure, but fond memories of Earl Boykins' Eastern Michigan smacking Duke in '96 and Gary Trent's Ohio winning the preseason NIT. But I digress... If the Mid-Majority is the scrolls of God, then Billy Packer is the cloven-hoofed anti-christ. Actually, there shouldn't be an "if" in that sentence. You better believe this was one of the first links on the sidebar. And because preseason tournaments are one of the great things about November college ball, the site has a handy guide to all the teams in the NIT, Maui, and all the other holiday invitationals. Some things have changed. For one, the Great Alaska Shootout now takes place in late December and, uh, isn't that great. Secondly, the preseason NIT has gone to a round robin format for the early rounds, which I'm for, I suppose, as it ensures the smaller schools get more games in, thus making the event worth their time. I'm sure it blows to take two weeks out of the schedule to play lose one game. Then again, the quality of the tourney takes a huge hit. It's virtually pre-destined that Tennessee, Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Gonzaga will reach the final four in New York.

It seem universal that Florida, UNC, and Kansas are the top three programs in the country entering the new season and not many could argue. The Gators are a scary proposition. When's the last time a defending national champion returned their entire starting five? I doubt anyone reading this was alive then. You've got player of the year candidate Joakim Noah, sure, but also Al Horford and Corey Brewer. They say that being the preseason #1 is a jinx, but man, can you imagine anyone in the country beating Florida? I can't.

Fourth in the nation won't be Greg Oden's Ohio State, however. For my money, it will be the Pac Ten champion: UCLA or Arizona. Even as a Wildcat fan, I give the edge to the Bruins, at the moment. Treasonous? Yes, but there are several reasons.

1. While UCLA loses Jordan Farmar, Darren Collison (their sparkplug in the NCAAs) now becomes a starter. Farmar is a better point guard, but the drop off in production won't be too significant.

2. Fewer players to integrate. Josh Shipp comes back to the Bruins lineup and will instantly fallback into the three-guard attack they pride themselves on. Arizona's new/returning stars are probably bigger, but for all the good that Jawaan McClellan did before missing virtually all of last year, he's never had to be a leader before. New territory for the team's best shooter. Freshman sensation Chase Budinger might be the best frosh in the country (Lute Olson's already called him his best recruit ever), but it remains to be seen how he'll mix into Arizona's deep lineup and if he can crack the starting lineup with regularity.

3. Experience. UCLA returns all but Farmar and Hollins and they were one game away from being crowned national champions. I'm also a strong believer that Luc Richard M'Bah Moute is going to be Pac Ten player of the year, despite the praise being heaped on teammate Arron Afflalo and Wildcat Marcus Williams (sorry, Marcus).

4. Arizona's senior leaders are Mustafa Shakur and Ivan Radinovic. No real problems with the latter other than that he often times isn't nearly aggressive as he's capable of being -- something a team leader needs to exhibit -- and often relies on his finesse game. Shakur has been as erratic a point guard as any in college basketball the last three years. I'd assume that the departures of Hassan Adams and Chris Rodgers (and their me-first attitudes) will do far more good to Shakur and the Wildcats than anyone can possibly imagine, but will he grow into that role of leader?

Arizona does have a leg up on UCLA in two areas, though: strength of schedule and depth. Arizona should run about ten players deep and has non-conference games against North Carolina, @ Virginia, @ Louisville, Memphis, Illinois, @ San Diego State, Houston, UNLV... I'm sorry, but no one on the planet can touch them for SOS. The Bruins' slate isn't anything to sneeze at with game against BYU, Texas A&M (who should be a real force this year), Michigan, @WVU, and of course playing in Maui which is loaded, as usual. Just not as tough as UofA's, though.

The Pac Ten may not be the strongest from top-to-bottom this year, but UCLA and Arizona are a pair that can match or best any other conference's top two with relative ease. Washington (still quality without Brandon Roy, but no longer a contender) and Oregon (Aaron Brooks and Malik Hairston HAVE TO step up) figure to be NCAA-bound this season with Stanford (you never can tell), USC (maybe still a year away) and Cal (losing Leon Powe may be too much) flirting with making a run, but the conference isn't terribly deep.

I'm excited about Arizona's prospects, though. Not being a clear-favorite in the Pac Ten is an advantage, I think, as we don't have quite as big a bullseye on our backs. The team shooting percentage can only go up. Lots of weapons with McClellan, Radinovic, Williams, Budinger, and Shakur. A workhorse center in Kirk Walter (easily the most crucial player in this team's plan for success). Depth for days and, oh yeah, some striking guy named "Lute" on the sideline. Striking. If things break our way with the brackets, we'll be talking Final Four.

Predicted Pac Ten finish...
1. UCLA **
2. Arizona **
3. Oregon **
4. Washington **
5. USC *
6. Stanford *
7. Cal *
8. Oregon State
9. Arizona State - it's going to be a long season for Herb Sendek
10. Washington State
** NCAA team
* NIT team

Part II of my college hoops ramp tomorrow (or sometime thereafter). More of a look around the country. I gotta go home, now.

Labels: , , , ,

The results are in!

Election night was kind. Winners, the lot of them....

Heath Shuler - In 1993, he finished 2nd in Heisman voting. Then he flamed out in the NFL. But the former Volunteer QB won last night, following in the footsteps of Jack Kemp and Steve Largent into the political arena. Weird, this is actually an election story. At any rate, congrats to Shuler and the Dems for ostensibly championing the checks and balances our nation has relied upon. Hopefully, he has a better record in Washington as a member of congress than he did as a Redskin. (Oh no, I did'un!)

Lakers - The most impressive thing about Andrew Bynum's line last night wasn't his 20 points, 14 boards, or 3 blocks (one of which put a nail in the T-Wolves coffin). No, it was his 0 turnovers and 0 fouls. Granted, the kid wasn't going to get much flak going against Mark Blount, of all people, but it's encouraging to see that kind of poise. What's troubling, though, is that the Lakers are developing a nasty tick: inability to close out games. Last Friday, they blew a 20-point lead against the Sonics, only to salvage a win late in the 4th quarter. Then, after getting blown out at Seattle, the exact same thing happens last night. The Lakers were up by as much as 19 in the 3rd quarter and again allowed their beaten opponent to crawl back into the game. Here's the big red flag: neither Seattle nor Minnesota are any good. Coach Phillip is going to have to instill some drills where the team has to stomp on the neck of a rabid puppy, just to make sure it stays down. Solve this problem now, or else it will haunt us down the road.

Sean Avery - The LA Kings sparkplug was voted #1 Star by NHL.com for his 2-goal effort last night as the Kings downed the hated Avs in a 6-5 shootout (not an actual shootout, I mean a high scoring ga-- whatever). Important win for a team so low on confidence (we just got lit up by lowly Phoenix 6-4 on Saturday) and a positive note to end a road trip on. Up next: San Jose on Thursday. Let's just say that I wouldn't be surprised if Joe Thornton had 7 points in that game.

Southend - People in England are quick to dismiss the League Cup when talking football -- err, soccer, labeling it an "unimportant" trophy. To me, a trophy is a trophy and in a sport where your club is measured by the size of their medal collection, I'd say the Carling Cup is worth winning. This makes Southend's (last place in the Championship -- i.e. last place in the 2nd division for all you American newbies) 1-0 stunner over Manchester United (top of the Premiership, right now) all the sweeter. People, that's like the Saskatchewan Roughriders beating the Joe Montana-era 49ers. It's a BIG upset.

Hornets - Are they in New Orleans? Are they in Oklahoma City? Seattle in a year? Nome, Alaska? Well, where they are is undefeated. 4-0 for the first time since anyone can remember. Chris Paul, when it's all said and done, will be on the honor list of legendary point guards. Right up there with Magic, Stockton, and Kidd. But it's Peja Stojokovic that's making the real difference. For all the noise made by the Bulls during the off-season, people didn't realize that it was actually the team receiving Tyson Chandler that would be the one to watch. His presence gives David West a little more flexibility and Peja represents the dead-eye assassin from the outside that the Hornets have never had. Provided they stay healthy (because they have virtually zero depth) this is a bonafide playoff team.

Labels: , , , , , , , ,