Can you feel it? (Part I)

Oh yeah... it's creeping up on us... the glory... the splendor... only five months away... are you ready for the Madness?

Thank the heavens that college basketball is back. You know who doesn't like college hoops? Racists. You're not a racist, are you? Good! Hopefully, this season is just as exciting as last (which was pretty damn exciting), though there isn't nearly the same uncertainty as to who will win the title (stand up if you play ball in Gainesville).

The season officially kicked off yesterday when Maryland and Vermont scored a couple of easy victories. So, on with it! Gimme gimme gimme.

But before the meat of it, I'd like to pimp The Mid-Majority website run by Kyle Whelliston, he who champions the little guy in college basketball and contributes mid-major-related articles to ESPN. Where as Dick Vitale says he's the champion of the little guy, but actually backs anything out of the ACC, Whelliston really backs the little guy. I'm right there with him, 100% For some reason, I've always had an affinity for the MAC. I don't know why, I just love that conference. They always come to play during tourney time. Bad memories of Miami University's 5-12 upset over Arizona in '95, sure, but fond memories of Earl Boykins' Eastern Michigan smacking Duke in '96 and Gary Trent's Ohio winning the preseason NIT. But I digress... If the Mid-Majority is the scrolls of God, then Billy Packer is the cloven-hoofed anti-christ. Actually, there shouldn't be an "if" in that sentence. You better believe this was one of the first links on the sidebar. And because preseason tournaments are one of the great things about November college ball, the site has a handy guide to all the teams in the NIT, Maui, and all the other holiday invitationals. Some things have changed. For one, the Great Alaska Shootout now takes place in late December and, uh, isn't that great. Secondly, the preseason NIT has gone to a round robin format for the early rounds, which I'm for, I suppose, as it ensures the smaller schools get more games in, thus making the event worth their time. I'm sure it blows to take two weeks out of the schedule to play lose one game. Then again, the quality of the tourney takes a huge hit. It's virtually pre-destined that Tennessee, Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Gonzaga will reach the final four in New York.

It seem universal that Florida, UNC, and Kansas are the top three programs in the country entering the new season and not many could argue. The Gators are a scary proposition. When's the last time a defending national champion returned their entire starting five? I doubt anyone reading this was alive then. You've got player of the year candidate Joakim Noah, sure, but also Al Horford and Corey Brewer. They say that being the preseason #1 is a jinx, but man, can you imagine anyone in the country beating Florida? I can't.

Fourth in the nation won't be Greg Oden's Ohio State, however. For my money, it will be the Pac Ten champion: UCLA or Arizona. Even as a Wildcat fan, I give the edge to the Bruins, at the moment. Treasonous? Yes, but there are several reasons.

1. While UCLA loses Jordan Farmar, Darren Collison (their sparkplug in the NCAAs) now becomes a starter. Farmar is a better point guard, but the drop off in production won't be too significant.

2. Fewer players to integrate. Josh Shipp comes back to the Bruins lineup and will instantly fallback into the three-guard attack they pride themselves on. Arizona's new/returning stars are probably bigger, but for all the good that Jawaan McClellan did before missing virtually all of last year, he's never had to be a leader before. New territory for the team's best shooter. Freshman sensation Chase Budinger might be the best frosh in the country (Lute Olson's already called him his best recruit ever), but it remains to be seen how he'll mix into Arizona's deep lineup and if he can crack the starting lineup with regularity.

3. Experience. UCLA returns all but Farmar and Hollins and they were one game away from being crowned national champions. I'm also a strong believer that Luc Richard M'Bah Moute is going to be Pac Ten player of the year, despite the praise being heaped on teammate Arron Afflalo and Wildcat Marcus Williams (sorry, Marcus).

4. Arizona's senior leaders are Mustafa Shakur and Ivan Radinovic. No real problems with the latter other than that he often times isn't nearly aggressive as he's capable of being -- something a team leader needs to exhibit -- and often relies on his finesse game. Shakur has been as erratic a point guard as any in college basketball the last three years. I'd assume that the departures of Hassan Adams and Chris Rodgers (and their me-first attitudes) will do far more good to Shakur and the Wildcats than anyone can possibly imagine, but will he grow into that role of leader?

Arizona does have a leg up on UCLA in two areas, though: strength of schedule and depth. Arizona should run about ten players deep and has non-conference games against North Carolina, @ Virginia, @ Louisville, Memphis, Illinois, @ San Diego State, Houston, UNLV... I'm sorry, but no one on the planet can touch them for SOS. The Bruins' slate isn't anything to sneeze at with game against BYU, Texas A&M (who should be a real force this year), Michigan, @WVU, and of course playing in Maui which is loaded, as usual. Just not as tough as UofA's, though.

The Pac Ten may not be the strongest from top-to-bottom this year, but UCLA and Arizona are a pair that can match or best any other conference's top two with relative ease. Washington (still quality without Brandon Roy, but no longer a contender) and Oregon (Aaron Brooks and Malik Hairston HAVE TO step up) figure to be NCAA-bound this season with Stanford (you never can tell), USC (maybe still a year away) and Cal (losing Leon Powe may be too much) flirting with making a run, but the conference isn't terribly deep.

I'm excited about Arizona's prospects, though. Not being a clear-favorite in the Pac Ten is an advantage, I think, as we don't have quite as big a bullseye on our backs. The team shooting percentage can only go up. Lots of weapons with McClellan, Radinovic, Williams, Budinger, and Shakur. A workhorse center in Kirk Walter (easily the most crucial player in this team's plan for success). Depth for days and, oh yeah, some striking guy named "Lute" on the sideline. Striking. If things break our way with the brackets, we'll be talking Final Four.

Predicted Pac Ten finish...
1. UCLA **
2. Arizona **
3. Oregon **
4. Washington **
5. USC *
6. Stanford *
7. Cal *
8. Oregon State
9. Arizona State - it's going to be a long season for Herb Sendek
10. Washington State
** NCAA team
* NIT team

Part II of my college hoops ramp tomorrow (or sometime thereafter). More of a look around the country. I gotta go home, now.