Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Return of the Association

The NBA is back tonight, the regular season tipping off with a couple games -- one of them being Suns v Lakers. So, with the NBA back, that means Lakers chatter is back, too.

I, for one, am well aware that this team still has deep flaws -- specifically on the defense -- but there is a feeling of optimism in Los Angeles (one that I share) that this squad can build on their strong showing in last season's first round playoff series (except for game 7, of course) against Phoenix. A series in which they were just one rebound away from winning. That Lakers squad came of age, then. There was a definite growth and it showed particularly with one player -- the key to our season: Kwame Brown. If Kwame can maintain a solid 12 pts/8 rebs a night average, the LakeShow will look a tough side to deal with. What excites me most about this season's squad is the collection of forwards we have. It's a deep mix and one that can give teams fits. I fully expect Lamar Odom to return from his grieving period as focused as he's ever been. If he returns to All-Star form, look out. Add a healthy Chris Mihm at center, servicable and steady, to pair with Kwame down low in the post and the Lakers have a legit starting frontline. Ronny Turiaf has proven himself a sparkplug and a bulldog on the boards and bringing in Vlad Radmanovic via free agency gives us a lot of versatility at both forward positions. Brian Cook is like a lesser version of Vlad, but an excellent catch-and-shoot perimeter player. Hopefully, the two of them can provide a consistent 3-point threat that the team is lacking. And, oh yeah, the kid Bynum. He'll probably still only get scrub minutes, but by season's end, may have come along nicely.

All that without even mentioning our point forward, Luke Walton, who has stated that he finally feels comfortable playing within the triangle offense. This is beyond significant as Walton sees the floor incredibly well. I strongly believe that a team needs to play to it's strengths. With that in mind, I'd start Walton as a third forward alongside Odom and Kwame with Kobe "Black Mamba" Bryant as the lone starting guard. Why bow to convention and start Smush Parker as the other guard when you can insert a superior player and distributor of the ball with Walton? My desired lineup:

Starting Lineup
C - Chris Mihm
F/C - Kwame Brown
F - Lamar Odom
F - Luke Walton
G - Kobe Bryant

Bench
C - Andrew Bynum
F - Vladimir Radmanovic
F - Ronny Turiaf
F - Brian Cook
G - Smush Parker
G - Sasha Vujacic
G - Jordan Farmar

IR
G - Maurice Evans
G - Aaron McKie
G - Shammond Williams

Losing Slava Medvedenko alone makes this team three games better. Younger without Devean George. Dynamic with rookie point guard Jordan Farmar. The rookie has played very well in the pre-season, but the triangle offense doesn't really require a true point guard like himself. It'll be interesting to see if he's able to meld into the squad's regular rotation. Hopefully he can take minutes away from Smush, as Farmar is a much smarter player. Sasha Vujacic figures to be taking a step back this season, but it never hurts to have big guards.

So there it is. Kobe Bryant will be on a mission to nab an MVP trophy (and he may well get it), but this season he'll have the luxury (assuming he persists with involving his teammates) of playing on a deep squad that could conceivably run 11-deep, regularly. I like the depth. Our biggest strengths entering the season 1) Kobe 2) depth/size in the post 3) rebirth of Lamar Odom. Add it all up and what do you get? Probably a finish in the Western Conference somewhere between 5-7 and a first round playoff series that goes to the limit. Depending on the opponent, Lakers could find themselves in the second round of the playoffs. We've also got this Phil Jackson guy still patroling the sidelines. And by "patrolling" I mean "comfortably seated with his legs crossed, admiring the game as though a distant observer."

NBA predictions...

Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division - Ladies and gents: the ugliest division the NBA has to offer. The Nets should comfortably clinch sometime in mid-march. Lots of things to watch here, though. 1) Boston's young talent -- Jefferson, Green, Rondo. 2) Will Iverson implode this year? 3) Looking for a laugh? Check out the look on Isiah's face on the sideline when he's realized he's assembled and uncoachable team.
1. New Jersey *
2. Boston
3. Philadelphia
4. Toronto
5. New York

Central Division - Enter: The LeBron Era. I'm not convinced (at all) that the addition of Ben Wallace makes Chicago a serious threat, but I do believe that it hurts Detroit a little.
1. Cleveland *
2. Detroit *
3. Chicago *
4. Indiana *
5. Milwaukee

Southeast Division - Need a team to keep an eye on? One that may surprise this year? Check out Orlando. Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and co. are going to turn a few heads and keep Milwaukee out of the post season in the process.
1. Miami *
2. Washington *
3. Orlando *
4. Charlotte
5. Atlanta

Western Conference
Southwest Division - Yeah. I said it. The Hornets nab the 8-seed. Toughest division in basketball by a sight, by the way. Spurs have to be considered clear favorites, especially now that they have something to prove against Dallas. To me, SA/DAL has always been sort of a Colts/Patriots rivalry, with the Mavs playing the role of the Colts. They finally pipped the big boys and now they have to avoid swift retribution.
1. San Antonio *
2. Dallas *
3. Houston *
4. NO/OKC *
5. Memphis

Northwest Division - There's buzz that Utah can make noise, provided they stay healthy. But they won't. One-horse division, once again.
1. Denver *
2. Utah
3. Seattle
4. Minnesota
5. Portland

Pacific Division - The Clippers and Lakers may very well finish with identical records. With the new "division + 1" seeding system (that will almost ensure Denver gets the 4-seed) the difference between the 5th and 6th seed may come down to a tie-breaker.
1. Phoenix *
2. LA Clippers *
3. LA Lakers *
4. Sacramento
5. Golden State

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Cleveland - Miami separated itself from Detroit in last season's conference finals. A healthy D-Wade and even only a servicable Shaq make them a clear choice for the Finals. King James will take Cleveland far, and reaching the ECF will be a feather in his cap, but the Cavs aren't all the way there. Yet.

Western Conference Finals: San Antonio over Phoenix - I'm assuming that A) the Suns won't be 100% healthy and B) Tim Duncan will be like The Terminator this season. Anything less than a championship/protecting Jon Connor and he'll commit ritual suicide.

NBA Finals: San Antonio over Miami in six games

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